Considering the massive strikes and concerted pro-labor efforts associated with SAG-AFTRA over everything from ensuring equitable pay from studios and streamers to the backlash against AI actors over the past few years, it feels like a breezy respite to follow news about the guild’s rebranded Actor Awards. That is, arguably, save for one of the night’s most shocking twists: actor Timothée Chalamet’s loss to Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor.
Chalamet, whose performance as the titular hustler and table tennis star Marty Mauser in the sports comedy-drama Marty Supreme has garnered accolades since the film’s 2025 release, has seemed like a shoo-in for an Oscar. Although Chalamet won the coveted Golden Globe for the same role mere weeks before the latest Actor Awards upset, the former is much less of an indicator of Academy Awards success than the average movie-goer might imagine.
What does this mean for Chalamet’s chances at clinching a golden statuette this year? Could it signify a sea change for this year’s favorite contender in the eyes of both the hoi polloi and the voting Academy body politic — and, in turn, possibly a watershed moment in Hollywood history? Or is it due to the stronger possibility that the cinematic gems 2025 has given us (among which, aside from Marty Supreme, include the record-breaking Sinners, as well as One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and more) have made this year’s awards season a total toss-up?
SAG-AFTRA’s Actor Award Is Far From Timothée Chalamet’s Only 2026 Loss
There have been several signs that an awards sweep simply isn’t in the cards for Chalamet this season. His Actor Award loss to Jordan came on the heels of an earlier (and arguably equally important) one: the BAFTA Awards, where Chalamet lost not to fellow nominee Jordan, but to English actor Robert Aramayo for his turn as a Scottish man living with Tourette’s syndrome in the biopic I Swear. So, the idea of a new Best Actor favorite sweep doesn’t seem likely.
Nor does the idea likely that Chalamet has suddenly become an unlikable Hollywood actor (or brand) due to murmurs of a SAG-AFTRA beef, especially as a mere rumor that only has one leg to stand on. Which leg, you might ask? None other than his controversial acceptance speech after winning a (you guessed it) Best Actor award for his leading turn as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The speech itself divided viewers after Chalamet eschewed a more humble approach to accepting the award, instead stating that his reasons for being there in the first place were, “really in pursuit of greatness […] I know people don’t usually talk like that […] but I want to be one of the greats.”
This conceivably bombastic gloating was sandwiched between a heartfelt thanks to his mother and his hero-worship of a litany of actors, including Marlon Brando and Daniel Day-Lewis. The idea of this speech alone casting him out of the running for this year’s award seems far-fetched at best.
For Timothée Chalamet, the 2026 Awards Season Is a Real Ping-Pong Match
So what are the odds that Timothée Chalamet will emerge victorious with an Oscar for Best Actor at the Academy Awards? Considering that the usual indicators have resulted in a complete toss-up, it’s hard to say.
What we know for certain is this: If we’re going by the notion that whoever wins the Actor Award (in this case, Michael B. Jordan for his role in Sinners) is more likely to nab a coveted Academy Award in the same category, then it’s likely Jordan’s game. The fact that Sinners has garnered a history-making 16 award nominations, including for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay, doesn’t hurt, either.
So, based on that alone, Chalamet’s chances seem slimmer, although not impossible. But, perhaps, we can put it best in the words of Marty Mauser: “I have a purpose. […] If you think that’s some kind of blessing, it’s not.”