Avalanche’s de Haan & Malinski Pairing a Big Success

While the Colorado Avalanche have struggled with injuries to start the season and unsurprisingly own a middling 9-9-0 record through 18 games, the team’s third defensive pairing has kept the team afloat during its abbreviated minutes.

After a season during which Jack Johnson, Sean Walker, Caleb Jones, and Sam Malinski all rotated in on the bottom pair, the Avalanche shored up the team’s depth on the blue line with an internal promotion along with a handful of free-agent signings.

During the 2024 offseason, Johnson (signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets), Walker (Carolina Hurricanes), and Jones (Los Angeles Kings) all departed the organization while general manager Chris MacFarland inked Calvin de Haan, Oliver Kylington, and Erik Brannstrom to one-year deals in free agency. The hope was that competition in training camp would reap rewards for the organization going forward. After a month of play, it appears that the third pair is set for the foreseeable future.

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Brannstrom was traded to the Vancouver Canucks before ever playing a game for the Avalanche. Kylington earned a look after missing the entire 2022-23 season and most of 2023-24 but has only played four games to date while averaging a meager 11 minutes per game. Colorado even claimed John Ludvig off of waivers from the Pittsburgh Penguins, but the 24-year-old has only appeared in five games this season.

Instead, Malinski (signed as a collegiate free agent in 2023) and de Haan have formed a symbiotic relationship. While the more adventurous Malinkski primarily handles the puck-moving duties, the 33-year-old de Haan assumes the familiar role of the steady stay-at-home defenseman. Malinski has tallied four points in 18 games while de Haan has produced a single assist in 15 appearances.

The new pair has helped head coach Jared Bednar – now the most tenured in franchise history – decrease the average ice time of Cale Makar and Devon Toews by about a half-minute each from last season, hopefully keeping his top pair fresh for more important games down the line.

So, how has the Avalanche’s newest pair turned into a legitimate tool for maintaining momentum rather than being used to kill time while the team’s stars are off the ice? Let’s dive in.

Avalanche Blue Line Enjoying Mixed Results

Let’s start at the top. The Avalanche have primarily deployed three pairs this season: Toews with Makar, Samuel Girard with Josh Manson, and de Haan with Malinski.

While the goal margins might cause some sticker shock, it bears reminding readers that the Avalanche own the third-worst team save percentage (SV%) at 5-on-5 (.884) mostly courtesy of substandard play from Alexandar Georgiev (.873). Backup netminder Justus Annunen has earned more starts this season and currently boasts a 5-on-5 SV% of .911, ranking 29th among qualified goalies (minimum five games played).

For what it’s worth, the Girard-Manson pair owns the worst 5-on-5 expected goals share (xGF%) of the three at 46.8%, with the other two coming in at 56.8% or higher. The goaltending is a major storyline this season and a reason to reserve judgment toward the team’s overall defensive results in the early going.

Despite the de Haan-Malinski pair sporting a minus-2 goal differential at 5-on-5, their underlying numbers make the argument that the Avalanche are dominating their minutes in a way that the raw goal count might not suggest. Considering how wildly shooting percentages can swing over a small sample, advanced statistics are more useful for evaluating the performance of a player, line, pairing, or team, and prop up the third pair’s credentials as legitimate difference makers.

As the numbers indicate, the Avalanche’s bottom pair has been among the most effective duos in the NHL this season in terms of controlling play and winning the possession battle. Driving their success has been a commitment to staunch defensive play as they’ve effectively neutered the quantity and quality of shots faced by their goalies.

Of the qualified pairs, de Haan and Malinski rank first in expected goals against (xGA/60) and high-danger chances against (HDCA/60) per 60 minutes, second in shots (SA/60), and third in scoring chances against (SCA/60) – all better marks than the Avalanche’s first and second pairs and among the best in the league.

This shouldn’t be interpreted as a slight against Makar and company as the de Haan-Malinski tandem is undoubtedly benefitting from lower usage and easier competition. Makar, Toews, and Girard are all seeing 21 minutes or more per night in all situations while none of Manson, de Haan, or Malinski have received more than 18 per game.

Bednar rightfully trusts his top defenders to push the pace against elite opposition, which explains the gulf in usage but the difference in zone deployment offers a further twist on the results. Toews and Makar start 66.7% of their 5-on-5 shifts in the offensive zone (sixth among qualified pairs) while the third pair does so only 23.1% of the time, the third-lowest ratio in the league.

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It’s in this context that their results are made more impressive as they must counter being buried in their own zone and having to transport the puck up the ice via controlled (passing or carrying the puck) or uncontrolled zone exits (dumping it out).

They also don’t benefit from being paired with the Avalanche’s best zone-entering forwards, as the pair most often shares the ice with checking forwards Logan O’Connor, Parker Kelly, and Joel Kiviranta.

The responsibility to move the puck thus falls on the blueliners, something that they have fulfilled with noticeable success to start the season and what should earn them more ice time in high-leverage situations.

de Haan & Malinski Pairing Should Benefit Avalanche in Playoffs

Teams often lean heavily on their stars during the playoffs and for good reason, but only using three forward lines or two defensive pairs for an entire postseason is a quick route to burning out the Makars and MacKinnons of the world.

While the Avalanche won’t be able to deploy their newest defensive pairing against opposing teams’ top players, having a dependable duo in hand should help them win more minutes without their superstars on the ice. The fact that both de Haan and Malinski can also be trusted with occasional special teams deployment gives Bednar a greater breadth of options and the flexibility to make changes on the fly.

This is no guarantee that the Avalanche will win the Stanley Cup or even go deep in the postseason, but there is no doubt that the team is in better shape on the blue line now than it has been since the 2022 championship campaign. Will that trend continue?

Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.