AFL clubs’ best… and worst case scenarios as latest draft intel revealed

The 2024 national draft is finally upon us, as all 18 AFL clubs gain a better understanding of how the two highly-anticipated nights will play out.

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A solid draft crop is often the cornerstone of a premiership side. So what recruiters do on draft night can often make or break a club’s future flag hopes.

Foxfooty.com.au breaks down the latest intel, as well as the best-case — and some worst-case — scenarios for every AFL club ahead of the 2024 national draft, which will be held on Wednesday November 20 and Thursday November 21.

ADELAIDE CROWS

Snaring midfield prodigy — and a father-son tall without rival bid

Adelaide will surely call its draft effort a success if it is able to land a highly-touted midfielder in addition to father-son prospect Tyler Welsh. And if no rival bid comes for Welsh, it should be considered an even bigger success. The big question surrounding the Crows is whether South Australian ball-getter Sid Draper is the man they decide to target. Rival clubs believe the Crows are just as keen on big-bodied Dandenong Stingrays midfielder Harvey Langford, who would provide the Crows with a physical presence at stoppages, as well as versatility. Reports have also recently emerged linking Adelaide to a play for Vic Metro star Jagga Smith — potentially as part of a trade up to North Melbourne’s Pick 2 — which would throw a spanner in the works of most mock drafts. It feels like the Crows can’t lose in this space. Meantime, while Welsh didn’t quite set the world alight in his draft year, adding another developmental key forward bred close to home would be a positive result. Having already added established players during the trade period, injecting a pair of promising draftees would cap a productive off-season for the West Lakes club. Ideally for Adelaide, Welsh doesn’t receive a national draft bid, allowing the Crows to take him with their final pick of the draft.

BRISBANE LIONS

The bidding situation

For some, Lions father-son midfielder Levi Ashcroft is the best player in the class. For others, he’s on the fringe of the top five. These views personify the even nature of this year’s draft. There’s a world in which a bid on Ashcroft doesn’t come until Pick 6 (Richmond). It goes without saying it’d be a massive win for the Lions if a bid comes at No. 6. If it happened, it would likely unfold in a scenario that saw Richmond choose Sam Lalor at No. 1 and North Melbourne take Finn O’Sullivan or Alix Tauru at Pick 2, before a run of midfielders taken by Carlton, Adelaide and Melbourne. On the other side of the best-worst coin is a bid coming far earlier, but it’s increasingly unlikely that Richmond elects to bid on Ashcroft at No. 1 in a move that would force the Lions to cough up maximum points. Taking into consideration a 20 per cent discount for bidding, Brisbane would need to surrender 2400 points to secure Ashcroft if the Tigers knocked on the door at the top of the order. However, a contending bid at Pick 3, for example, would cost the Lions just 1787 points. Currently, they have 2475 points. Remember, Brisbane will also need to match a contending bid for Academy product Sam Marshall slightly later in proceedings — potentially in the early 20s — so it would benefit greatly if a bid came later.

CARLTON

A gun mid and the father-sons

If the Blues land one of Finn O’Sullivan, Jagga Smith or Sid Draper, their draft should be considered a success. If they also land the Camporeale boys without having to match rival bids — not that they should cost a lot — then it will be the best-case scenario. When Carlton boldly traded up the order with West Coast during the exchange period, it was clear it was eyeing one of the draft’s premium prizes. Which prize that is remains to be seen, but Smith has emerged as the Blues’ most likely choice. Nonetheless, the Blues will come away with a star-in-the-making midfielder to supplement a star-studded — but lacking extensive support — engine room. Carlton farewelled depth option Matthew Kennedy in the trade period, while Adam Cerra has remained troubled by soft-tissue injuries, hence pouncing on a top ball-getter makes too much sense. With regards to a bid on Ben Camporeale in particular, it is expected that one comes at around the mark of the Blues’ second pick, which is currently No. 38. Ideally, the bid comes after Pick 38 — and that’s what most clubs believe will happen — allowing the Blues to take two players before matching Camporeale bids. Keep in mind: there is a big difference between nabbing a player inside the top 38 selections and later in the 60s. Carlton is also set to take Lucas Camporeale with its last pick of the national draft, which would alleviate the risk of a rival club bidding on the older brother if the Blues take a player in the open pool with that final selection.

COLLINGWOOD

A high-upside slider or another draft haul miss?

After last year’s Lachie Schultz trade and having offloaded capital for All-Australian flanker Dan Houston this exchange period, the Magpies aren’t left with much in preparation for the national draft — but they could still land a slider on night two. As things currently stand, Collingwood is scheduled to make its first selection at No. 52. Obviously, there remains the possibility that the Pies trade up if there is a slider — either on the first or second night — they like who is still on the board near their first selection. Key-defensive prospects Noah Mraz or Charlie Nicholls could be in calculations for the Pies, while picking hybrid WA forward Hamish Davis would be a terrific result. It is a secret to nobody that Collingwood did the bulk of its recruiting work throughout the trade period — able to secure the services of Houston and ex-Giants utility Harry Perryman, but it did lose depth at multiple spots with John Noble and Joe Richards leaving. It’s clear the Magpies are chips-in as they chase a second flag under Craig McRae. It’s definitely speculative, but the worst-case scenario here for Collingwood would be to have another ordinary draft. Its four most recent top-end draft picks in Tew Jiath, Harry DeMattia, Jakob Ryan and Ed Allan have combined for just four matches to this point. The likes of Reef McInnes, Fin Macrae, Cooper Murley, Caleb Poulter and Jay Rantall didn’t — or haven’t kicked on — either. There’s plenty of time for the recent quartet, but the Pies will be hoping for a change in fortune.

ESSENDON

The Kako bidding situation

In one sense, a late bid on Essendon Next Generation Academy star Isaac Kako would be a good result. But in another, it’d be disastrous. The Bombers currently hold Melbourne’s future first-round selection following a trade that saw Essendon shift out of its initial No. 9 spot in order to avoid having it eaten by a matched Kako bid — and that future pick would be the centrepiece of any trade. The issue is the bid on Kako could be sliding, as it’s unclear whether St Kilda (Picks 7 and 8) and Melbourne (Pick 9) would move on Kako. There’s even a chance it’s left to Port Adelaide to bid on Kako at Pick 13 should Richmond (Picks 10 and 11) overlook him. Yes the Bombers wouldn’t have to fork out as many draft points to match, but considering they initially held Pick 9 before the trade period, it wouldn’t look ideal on paper. A later bid could also affect Essendon’s ability to trade back into the first round. Matt Rosa’s team is exploring a deal to get back into the first night of the draft — as has been reported — with the Bombers closely linked to key forward Jobe Shanahan, who starred for Essendon’s VFL side with 11 goals in three games. In saying that, these mid-first-round picks are worth more than in other years, so a deal might be difficult to complete. All eyes will be on the Bombers.

FREMANTLE

Bo Allan slides… or the Dockers move up to get him

The Bo-Allan Fremantle link is strong. Not only has he been WA’s top draft prospect all year, he’s also been a key member of the Peel Thunder team, playing in the club’s WAFL league premiership side in September. The Dockers would love to get him — and ideally he’d slip through to their first selection at Pick 14 — but it’s now unlikely he gets past Melbourne (Pick 9) or Richmond (Picks 10 and 11). St Kilda, however, could be open to trade offers for its second first-rounder (Pick 8). Could the Dockers trade up to that Saints pick and take Allan, all while keeping their future first for a possible play at Sydney superstar Chad Warner next year? They’d likely have to part with Picks 14 and 30 (or a future second), but the in-demand Allan appears worth the investment. If Allan is off the board, the Dockers would be hopeful one of Joe Berry or Xavier Lindsay — the two players most strongly linked to their first pick — is still available. It wouldn’t be a disaster if neither of the trio were there, with midfielder/forwards Murphy Reid and Taj Hotton great alternatives. But clubs believe both Berry and Lindsay would fit into Justin Longmuir’s game plan well.

GEELONG

Find another gem in the rough… or trade up to steal a star

The Cats are the best team in the competition when it comes to finding a draft bargain late, which is part of the reason as to why they have been so successful in recent times. Last year it was defender Lawson Humphries and mature-aged recruit Shaun Mannagh, but in years gone by it has been the likes of Ollie Dempsey, Tom Atkins and Tom Stewart. What will the Cats list management team have in store this time around? Could it be Geelong Falcons midfielder Xavier Ivisic or All-Australian half-back Lachie Jaques? The Cats have targeted local products in recent years, such as Jhye Clark and George Stevens. But rival clubs believe the Cats are looking at a ruck this year — and the best ruck in it, Sturt’s Alex Dodson, has been strongly linked to Geelong, but only if the club is able to trade up the order to land him. If the Cats can land Dodson — who has interest from Richmond and St Kilda — that’d be a big result for them.

GOLD COAST SUNS

A later Lombard bid… and a bold move back in

The Suns won’t be as busy as last year’s first round, which saw them match bids on four academy prospects. On Wednesday night they’ll only have to worry about where Leo Lombard — a gun midfielder who was the co-winner of the Larke Medal as the best player of the national championships — attracts attention. It seems his range is narrow — St Kilda is widely expected to bid on him with either Pick 7 or 8 — but a bid outside the top 10 would be a good result for the Suns. Once Lombard is secured though, Gold Coast’s attention will turn to trading back into the early stages of the draft — and they’re well placed to do that with three future first-rounders to play with. If the Suns can get their hands on one of the Giants’ mid first-round selections (Picks 15 or 16), that’d be a tremendous result. They’ve been linked to Sandringham Dragons’ Taj Hotton and GWV Rebels’ Ollie Hannaford, should they get a pick in that range.

GWS GIANTS

Steal a slider… or a juicy future pick

The Giants, again, are loaded at the top of the draft, holding three first-rounders: Picks 15, 16 and 21. Despite their hand, it seems unlikely they’ll be able to package up their picks and move up the draft order, so their best hope now would be for a top prospect to slide to them. The Giants have done a lot of work on Murray Bushrangers half-forward Joe Berry, who has interest from clubs with top-10 picks — and there is a scenario, albeit an unlikely one, where Berry slips to Pick 15 and the Giants take very little time to select him. They’re likely going to get some juicy offers for Picks 15 and 16 too — and with North Melbourne eyeing a move back into the first round, acquiring the Kangaroos’ future first-round selection could turn out to be a tremendous result.

HAWTHORN

Landing a slider with Pick 33

The Hawks, for the first time since 2018, don’t have a first-round pick. They do, however, have two future firsts to play with should they wish to get back into the first round of a talent-stacked draft, which would be a grand result after making the semi-finals this year. Otherwise nailing its first selection (Pick 33) will be crucial. Hawthorn would surely strongly consider pouncing on Eastern Ranges gun Christian Moraes — who played for Box Hill in the VFL this year — if he were still available at or near No. 33, while either in-demand players Claremont’s Hamish Davis or GWV Rebels’ Jack Ough would be shrewd acquisitions.

MELBOURNE

Jagga or FOS falls to 5

If it isn’t this, what else is the Demons’ best-case scenario? Melbourne should consider itself extremely fortunate if Jagga Smith — who most top draftees believe should be taken first overall — or Finn O’Sullivan falls to No. 5. The Dees’ core contingent of Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver aren’t done yet, but each have respective question marks lingering — whether it be health, age or other — and there is minimal depth at the position, especially after the departure of Alex Neal-Bullen to Adelaide. And while they have overseen the promising development of Trent Rivers as a midfielder and just last year swooped on outside speedster Caleb Windsor in the top 10, a golden opportunity beckons for the Demons to snap up a genuine game-changer at the position for the next decade. Smith, who was named captain of the under-18 All-Australian team after an outstanding national carnival for Vic Metro, averaged more disposals (29.2), contested possessions (13.8) and clearances (6.8) than any other player, while O’Sullivan is ranked by some clubs as the best player in the class despite his frustrating, injury-interrupted 2024. However the Kangaroos are firming to take O’Sullivan, while either Carlton or Adelaide are considered likely landing spots for Oakleigh Chargers standout Smith. Harvey Langford, therefore, would be a great alternative. As for Pick 9, perhaps the best result for the Dees would be if all of Bo Allan, Xavier Lindsay and Alix Tauru were all still on the board come their second pick. High-flying defender Tauru had been linked to North Melbourne’s Pick 2 for weeks, but with the Kangaroos set to take O’Sullivan, there’s a scenario in which Tauru falls out of the top seven. St Kilda has shown interest in Tauru, but not lots lately, so there’s a chance the Saints overlook him and the Dees get the choice of taking Tauru with their second pick. Although they really like midfielders Allan and Lindsay, too.

NORTH MELBOURNE

FOS, Tauru, and the trade-down situation

One of the worst-kept secrets ahead of the draft has been North Melbourne’s admiration of intercepting key defender Alix Tauru. However, recently, an alternative has come to light, with the Roos thought to be contemplating instead selecting midfielder Finn O’Sullivan at No. 2. The Kangaroos had long been considered a trade-down candidate — given they aren’t scheduled to pick again after No. 2 until No. 62 following their trade with Sydney — but likely only in a move that ensured they would still have Tauru access. If the Roos managed to secure a shift down to Pick 4 or 6, land extra capital and still manage to snag Tauru in the process, it should be considered a big win. However, in a different scenario and keeping in mind the above, North could take O’Sullivan at 2 and then use its future first-rounder to reinject itself in the first-round order to pounce on Tauru. Coming away with not one of, but both, O’Sullivan and Tauru would be the best-case scenario for the Roos. On the other side of the coin, in a worst-case situation, Richmond could surprise everyone and opt for O’Sullivan instead of Lalor, leaving North Melbourne to either take Tauru at 2 or try and strike a trade-down, perhaps with Adelaide. However, getting that over the line might prove a difficult task — and if North isn’t able to find a trade-down partner and doesn’t make another pick until very late, it will be a disappointing result for Brady Rawlings, Will Thursfield and co.

PORT ADELAIDE

A key-position slider?

The closer we get to Wednesday night, the more whispers there are about Harry Armstrong potentially slipping down the order. The Sandringham Dragons standout had been linked to Melbourne’s second selection, but it now seems he might be overlooked until the teens. At the No. 13 slot, if the Power were able to get their hands on Armstrong, it would be a terrific result for a club — particularly after the retirement of Charlie Dixon and the concussion question marks lingering over Todd Marshall. Another tall forward option would be Jobe Shanahan, who the Power have done lots of work on in recent times. Should Shanahan — who has interest from Richmond and West Coast in the previous two selections — slip through to Port, as well as Armstrong, that’d be a grand scenario — but not-so-grand if they were snapped up beforehand. The Power are also hopeful a first-round contender slides through to their second selection (Pick 29). Should one of powerful midfielder-forward Cooper Hynes, exciting GWV Rebels utility Ollie Hannaford or composed Sandringham Dragons defender Harry Oliver be on the board, the Power would be stoked.

RICHMOND

A legacy draft

Understandably, plenty of intrigue has surrounded Richmond and its movements in the lead-in to the draft. Already in possession of seven first-rounders as well as the first pick of the second round, the Tigers easily wield the most draft power in the competition. Is it possible for there to be a worst-case scenario for Richmond at the 2024 draft when you have eight of the first 24 selections? Not in the short-term. But the success of this year’s hall will ultimately be judged in hindsight. Considering the mass number of players that have left the club — either via trade or retirement — in the past two years, it’s imperative the Tigers nail the next two nights of drafting. Rival clubs are frustrated, yet fiercely admired, by how tightly the Tigers have guarded their draft preferences this year, especially in recent weeks when the rumour mill is out of control. Ultimately, the Tigers must get their mix right. There’s a scenario where the Tigers take Sam Lalor, Josh Smillie and Bo Allan with their first three picks. Would that be too many big-bodied midfielders to take within the first 10 picks? There are also suggestions the Tigers mightn’t take a key-position player with any of their first four selections. Is that too much of a risk? Richmond must also make the right trade calls, for it’s unlikely the club will use all eight top-24 selections at the draft. There’s potential for the Tigers to turn one or two of their choices into 2025 capital. Specifically, Pick 24, the first pick of the second round on night two, holds tremendous value and could be the selection the Tigers deal if they feel they have filled enough list needs on night one. Acquiring a first-rounder next year for Pick 24 would be a good result, albeit ideally it should be with a club that’s less likely to be in flag contention, considering the 2025 draft crop is heavily compromised and isn’t as deep as this year’s.

ST KILDA

Secure a slider star mid AND a gun runner

The Saints hold two top-10 selections as it stands, which is extremely exciting for Saints fans. Rival clubs believe the Saints will likely target a midfielder and a player outside the centre square with those two selections. There’s a scenario in which one of the top-five open-draft midfielders, such as Sid Draper or Harvey Langford, slips to St Kilda. Draper, especially, would be an epic result this would be for the Saints. For years they’ve been crying out for a speedy, explosive and match-turning midfielder – and Draper could be that player. Elsewhere, they’ve been linked to athletic West Australian Bo Allan and, most notably, the versatile Tobie Travaglia, who have both shown they can play through the midfield or in defence. Both players would give the Saints versatility as they’ve shown an ability to impact games both on the ball and in defence. But drafting Gippsland Power defender Alix Tauru, should he slip through, could be a massive win as the departure of Josh Battle has left a hole in the backline.

SYDNEY SWANS

Landing a gun tall… or talls

It seems as though the Swans are targeting a key-position player this draft, possibly another forward after the retirements of Lance Franklin and Sam Reid in recent years. While Logan McDonald, Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean have all shown promising signs, the Swans could be lured into taking a look at a player like Jack Whitlock, Jobe Shanahan or Jonty Faull. Whitlock is strong in the air and mobile around the ground, while Shanahan thrived in his short stint with Essendon’s VFL side earlier this year. Whitlock or Shanahan would be a great result, but the Swans are also big fans of Faull, who’s strong overhead and competitive, yet agile and clean below his knees for a player of his size. Alternatively, Vic Metro defender Luke Trainor is a big chance to slip through to their second first-round pick. Touted as a top-five prospect earlier this season, Trainor is precise by foot and is strong in the air.

WEST COAST EAGLES

Bo Allan slides… and they get another early pick

Like fellow WA club Fremantle, the Eagles will hold out hope top local prospect Bo Allan somehow slips down the draft order and remains on the board at Pick 12. But landing one of Victorian trio Taj Hotton, Murphy Reid or Joe Berry would be just as good a result, for all three could have a big impact for West Coast both forward of centre and in the midfield. It’s also understood the Eagles are keen to add another selection to their draft arsenal via a trade on draft night. Ideally that extra pick comes in the first round, although another early second-rounder — to go with their natural Pick 26 — wouldn’t be a bad result either.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Pouncing on a Tier 2 slider

Depending on where other dominoes fall, one of Murphy Reid, Taj Hotton or Joe Berry could fall to the Bulldogs at Pick 17, which would be an enormous result. The Bulldogs lost Bailey Smith, Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel in the trade period, which means they’re in need of another classy ball-user — and Reid could deliver that, given his ability to play through the midfield or in the forward line. He’s slick, classy and a really strong decision-maker. But Hotton or Berry would give the Dogs more forward-half spark, too. The Dogs have also been linked to an array of players at their second selection (Pick 25), including Christian Moraes and Tom Gross, but an Ollie Hannaford slide to the selection would be brilliant, for Hannaford could bring much-needed forward-half pressure.