Dispatch from Pennsylvania: How marketing affects swing voters as U.S. election looms

Americans will soon elect their next president after a race for the White House that is essentially tied. From a marketing perspective, think of Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris as each holding 45 per cent market share. The remaining 10 per cent includes undecided voters and people disinclined to vote.

My political marketing class at the University of Windsor is using a marketing lens to understand the variables that will influence the outcome on Nov. 5. My recent road trip to the battleground state of Pennsylvania gave me insight into the strength of both the Democratic and Republican brands.

I am viewing the parties as long-established brands. There is brand loyalty to both parties. Those brands’ current success, however, is influenced by the ongoing campaign.

In terms of the Democratic Party, voters obviously aren’t being asked to buy it, but they are being asked to buy the party as augmented or diminished by Harris, its current presidential candidate. The same can be said for Trump’s Republican party.

From a marketing perspective, we can monitor promotional efforts that include traditional media, social media, debates, interviews and rallies, and we receive updates on the parties’ fundraising efforts — essentially a promotional budget. We’ll see the results of these efforts on Nov. 5.

Predicting results

This is the third time I’ve offered a political marketing course based on an American presidential election. The class focuses on understanding the core party brands, and the impact of candidates, debates, media coverage and Political Action Committees. Students forecast the election results the day before the election.

The presidency is not decided by the national popular vote. It is a state-by-state competition, with each state assigned votes in the Electoral College. There are 538 Electoral College votes, so 270 are needed to win.

Most states are predictable. California will undoubtedly vote Democrat (54 votes); Texas will more than likely vote Republican once again (40 votes). The election therefore comes down to seven swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Read more:
North Carolina is not really a red or blue state − and that makes political predictions much more difficult

The Democrats, with 226 safe Electoral College votes, have 20 possible routes to 270 — and 19 of them require a Pennsylvania win. Republicans, with 219 safe Electoral College votes, have 21 possible routes to 270 — 19 also require a Pennsylvania win. That’s why I decided to drive through Pennsylvania and speak to voters.

Understanding Pennsylvania

I was in Pennsylvania during the week of Sept. 30 to Oct. 4, just after Hurricane Helene hit the southeast, when a vice-presidential debate was held in New York, as the Longshoremen started to strike and as Hurricane Milton was bearing down on Florida.

First I went to Erie, a bellwether county with a long history of having the same voting pattern as the full state of Pennsylvania, so it’s a strong predictor of statewide results. I went to a Pittsburgh suburb, and then to the borough of State College, home of Penn State University. I periodically left the interstate to drive through other towns to see the signs, grab lunch and talk.

Each time, my introduction was simple:

“I’m a marketing professor from Canada running a class about the U.S. presidential election. Would you mind explaining to me how you think Pennsylvania will vote? I do not need to know how you will vote.”

The university students I spoke to were juniors and seniors. Other than the students, the people I spoke to would be considered working class, a mix of blue collar and white collar. The non-students were 35 to retirement age. Everyone I spoke said they’d voted in the 2022 mid-term election and intended to vote this year.

At an Erie car show, voters I interviewed were evenly split between a group of 50-plus men with vintage cars and male university students with newer vehicles. I heard from both groups that Pennsylvania was divided, but that the mood between the parties differed.

Both argued that people voting Democrat were brand-loyal or rejecting the Trump brand. Both age groups, including Democratic voters, noted that Trump supporters were primarily focused only on him as the current Republican brand offering.

Economic concerns

Most said the biggest issue that will most influence undecided voters is the economy, followed closely by a more narrow economic concern — inflation.

One Democrat conveyed a simple message that was representative. Asked who would take Erie County: “Democrats.” Asked why they would win, he replied: “I’m just hoping.”

Contrast that with a visit to a diner in Erie. One woman explained that she supports Harris because of reproductive rights. Everyone else backed Trump because of his policies on the economy, the southern border, international wars and crime.

One diner patron had been to a recent Trump rally in Erie. He described it as a rock concert and spoke of the excitement, and hearing Trump say the exact same lines he always says. “It was your favourite rock band playing their hits,” he said.

I left Erie understanding that Democrats were brand loyal or voting to avoid Trump. Republicans, however, never referenced past voting or leaders. They were simply Trump supporters.

The Pittsburgh scene

Pittsburgh was a bust. I chose the wrong town outside Pittsburgh. While I spoke to dozens of voters in Erie, I found only two people to speak to in Smithton.

State College was different. My hotel was close to Penn State University, and there was a restaurant/sports bar on the hotel property.

I entered at 4 p.m. The bartender asked why I was in town. A nearby patron said that he would answer questions. Then another person volunteered. I left seven hours later. People were asking to be next.

I spoke to people from all political spectrums. Of the 40-plus people I spoke with, one couple illustrated the mood in the state particularly well. She is a Republican. He is a Democrat. He explained: “There is too much going on — inflation, the hurricanes, the Longshoremen strike, steel and fracking, illegal immigration. Too much.”

He shrugged his shoulders, discouraged. She smiled, eager for Election Day.

Conclusions from talking to voters

If the election were held today, I believe Republicans would win Pennsylvania based on my conversations with voters. But that could change if there is a change in one of the key topics: strong or unanticipated positive economic news, perhaps, or if a new issue or story develops that has not yet impacted the race.

The road trip provided insights into voter decision-making. It highlighted the importance of brand loyalty and enthusiasm. A substantial portion of voters indicated they wished both parties had different leaders. This could impact voter turnout.

It also illuminated a key difference between traditional consumer decision-making and voter decision-making. If, on Black Friday, I prefer Walmart’s offering over Amazon’s, I am not impacted by my neighbour’s purchase decision.

In politics, however, how my neighbour votes will influence my life for the next four years.